On February 18, 2026, oil prices experienced a notable increase, with Brent crude futures rising by $1.8, or 2.6%, to $69.3 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbing by $1.8, or 2.48%, to $64.2 per barrel. This surge was largely attributed to reports of progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, where Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that both nations had reached an understanding on the main 'guiding principles' for resolving their longstanding nuclear dispute. Despite this positive sentiment, analysts remain cautious, with Sugandha Sachdeva from SS WealthStreet noting, 'Crude oil prices look poised for a technical rebound ... However, a finalized agreement remains distant, and markets remain cautious about the durability of diplomatic momentum.' Meanwhile, political consultancy Eurasia Group assessed a 65% probability of U.S. military strikes against Iran by the end of April, adding a layer of uncertainty to the market dynamics.